Displaying 126 posts out of 126
The Best Performing Investment in 2024, So Far...
3/19/2024
What is the sweetest investment in 2024 so far? It’s not Nvidia, or Bitcoin. It’s cocoa. Considerations for ETF investors.
2024 Market Outlook – Available Now!
12/21/2023
Booms, Busts, and Commodity Market Volatility: Pursuing Better Investment Outcomes in Commodities
Sugar Prices Rally: There’s an ETF for That!
10/30/2023
Unfavorable weather tied to the current El Nino climate pattern is taking a toll on sugar production. For investors, the Teucrium Sugar Fund (CANE) offers price exposure to sugar futures prices.
Know the Basics – Machine Learning and OAIA
1/30/2023
The Teucrium AiLA Long-Short Agricultural Strategy ETF (OAIA) is a passive exchange-traded fund designed to track the AiLA S033 Index, which is powered by advanced machine learning technology.
Whitepaper – The Teucrium AiLA Long-Short Agriculture Strategy ETF: OAIA
12/20/2022
Perhaps now more than ever, investors (professional and novice alike) are recognizing the role that agriculture can play in an investment portfolio. After all, advances in market structure and technology have leveled the playing field. Whereas not long-ago, alternative markets, such as the agricultural futures market, were all but reserved for institutional and/or accredited investors, today every investor with a brokerage account can obtain agricultural futures price exposure through ETFs (exchange traded funds). What’s more, not only do ETF investors have access to alternative markets, but they also have access to sophisticated alternative market strategies. The Teucrium AiLA Agricultural Long-Short ETF is one of those strategies.
Planting Prospects
USDA WASDE Reaction
2/9/2022
Initial Reaction to the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report
USDA WASDE Reaction
1/12/2022
Initial Reaction to the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report
Santa Clause Rally or Something More?
2022 Grains Outlook
USDA WASDE Reaction
12/10/2021
Initial Reaction to the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report
Input Costs Soar
10/29/2021
High Energy Prices are Contributing to Food Inflation. The 18% advance in global food prices over the last year has largely been due to internal market supply and demand fundamentals.[1] Now, however, external market forces, namely energy prices, are threatening to help push food prices even higher.
USDA WASDE Reaction
10/12/2021
Initial Reaction to the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report
Food Inflation - Think Grains
10/11/2021
Global food prices have risen nearly 33% in the last year. While food inflation threatens to negatively impact the global economy, informed investors could potentially benefit from a trend of rising prices.
September Grain Stocks Report - Initial Reaction
9/30/2021
Top Takeaways: #1. Wheat inventories come in at the low end of expectations providing the fuel needed to boost wheat prices in the day’s trade. #2. Soybean inventories came in higher than the highest analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey. This was a bearish surprise for soybean prices #3. Corn inventories came in at the higher end of expectations. Corn futures sold off on the news.
'Tis the Season
9/23/2021
Review of Seasonal Charts Heading into Harvest. Jake Hanley, Managing Director/Portfolio Manager. Corn and soybean prices typically put in their annual lows around the harvest season. Given that prices have largely followed the seasonal trend this year, peaking in the Spring, and moving lower over the summer, it is possible that prices could continue to follow the seasonal patterns and head higher through year-end.
USDA WASDE Reaction
9/10/2021
Initial Reaction to the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report
La Nina Threat Returns
9/7/2021
A recent report from NOAA, dated 08/30/2021 reveals a 70% chance that a La Nina will re-emerge in November and last throughout the winter. Weather can have a significant impact on agricultural production. Over the past 24 months, adverse weather, spurred in part by La Nina conditions, has stifled crop production leading to a drawdown of global food inventories. As a result, grain prices have risen to multi-year highs as market participants factor in lower supplies.
Sweet Run for Sugar Prices
8/25/2021
Since bottoming in April of 2020, sugar prices have run up 119%. Prices are now back to levels not seen since 2017. The storyline, as has been the case among commodities in 2021, is all about supply and demand.
USDA WASDE Reaction
A Delta Variant Hedge?
7/27/2021
Given the recent spike in volatility and talk of increased spread of the Delta Variant, investors may do well to review their portfolio allocations. It may be particularly important to take note of investment correlations, and review how different asset classes have behaved in previous stock market downturns.
The Golden Grain Cycle
7/20/2021
“Grains tend to trade at or near their cost of production until there is a supply disruption at which point prices historically have moved dramatically higher. Over time as production increases and/or demand decreases, inventories are rebuilt and prices trend back toward the cost of production once again.” – Sal Gilbertie
USDA WASDE Reaction
Potential Market Movers
6/18/2021
The grains have been on an impressive run, advancing over 50% in only 10 months. Prices have been moving lower recently as market participants await critical information that will likely help set the tone moving forward. On June 30th, the USDA will release two potentially market-moving reports. Those are: #1 Quarterly Stocks Report #2 Acreage Report.
USDA WASDE Reaction
Sinking Your FANGS Into Commodities
5/25/2021
Inflation concerns are on the rise. Currently frothy stock prices for growth and technology companies are leading many investors to search for alternatives. It should come as no surprise that many are considering commodities as a replacement for some of their FANG holdings. Commodities historically have performed well during periods of rising inflation and have demonstrated low correlations with equity markets.
Corn Prices Are Up - For All The Right Reasons
4/26/2021
Corn prices are up 19% this month and 40% YTD. We believe that the fundamentals support this recent rally in corn prices.
USDA WASDE Reaction
Initial Analysis of Stock and Prospective Plantings Reports
Out With The Old, Planting The New
3/12/2021
Corn and Soybean Markets at a Juncture. Even while supplies of the ’20-’21 corn and soybean crops dwindle, the market will begin looking ahead to the ’21-’22 crop.
USDA WASDE Reaction
Corn and Soybean Supplies Likely to Remain Tight
2/24/2021
The USDA released the first estimates for the ’21-’22 at the Agriculture Outlook Forum held 02/18-02/19. The initial estimates appear to be supportive for US corn and soybean prices as supplies are likely to remain tight, despite the potential for a record harvest.
Corn, or Soybeans? Both?
2/11/2021
Farmers will soon need to decide how much of each crop they will plant. Investors may also be trying to decipher which of the two markets has the greater potential for further price appreciation. Unlike farmers, investors have the luxury to be able to say “both.”
Healthy Correction?
1/27/2021
The relentless advance of grains prices was stopped cold as front month corn, soybeans and wheat futures all closed lower last week. The price action was a good reminder that as fast as prices can rise, they can, and often do, fall faster. The move has undoubtedly left some market participants wondering if the selloff was simply a near term correction or the beginning of a new downtrend lower.
Corn Prices Advance to 7 Year Highs
USDA WASDE Reaction
2021 Grains Outlook - The Big Shift
2021 Grains Outlook Part IV - Geopolitics, The Dollar, and Inflation
2021 Grains Outlook Part V - Investment Considerations and Conclusion
2021 Grains Outlook - Part II Fundamentals
2021 Grains Outlook Part III - Weather
2021 Grains Outlook - Part I The Big Shift
USDA WASDE Reaction
Smaller Brazilian Soybean Crop Likely Not Baked into Prices
12/4/2020
Market participants seem to be at odds over whether the soybean market has already priced in significant production challenges in Brazil. We do not think so.
Food Prices, The Dollar, and Inflation
11/10/2020
Monetary policy alone is likely to perpetuate a lower dollar trend. This should be supportive for commodity prices. Direct currency pairs such as the USD/BRL or USD/RUB have significant implications for global trade and grain prices. Continued dollar weakness versus the Brazilian REAL and Russian Ruble should act as a tailwind for US grain prices.
Weighing Alternatives Ahead of the Election
10/23/2020
With the US Election less than two weeks away, 48% of investors believe that markets are underpricing the risk of a contested election. Still the S&P 500 is only 3.5% off all-time highs, suggesting that by-in-large investors continue to favor stocks. The cliché “there is no alternative” (TINA is the acronym) is simply wrong. Today’s investor is not confined to the traditional asset classes of stocks, bonds, and cash.
Soybean Supplies Dwindling - Blog
10/13/2020
Seasonal and Fundamental Support for Prices. The soybean price rally that began in mid-August has run contra to the historical seasonal trend. This in large part is due to the market’s recognition that the global soybean balance sheet is as tight as it has been in 7 years. Strong global demand for soybeans is likely to continue to be supportive for prices, even in the face of a potential record-breaking Brazilian crop. Currently, the fundamentals and the seasonal patterns are aligned and may be supportive for prices moving forward.
USDA WASDE Reaction 10/09/2020 - Blog
Watch Wheat - Blog
9/28/2020
US winter wheat farmers have begun planting. At the moment, the global wheat balance sheet is looking fairly flush. However, increased import demand from China, geo-political tensions and potential production issues tied to weather (including the recently formed La Nina) may provide a tailwind for prices moving forward.
Missed the Rally in Corn and Soybeans? - Blog
9/14/2020
For those who might have missed the recent run up in grain prices and are looking for an entry point, your opportunity may be on the horizon.
A $4.8 Billion Dollar Question - Blog
8/21/2020
Are there really 10 million less acres of corn and soybeans than reported on the WASDE? Current official US Government Department of Agriculture estimates are at odds over crop acreage plantings. The discrepancy represents millions of bushels and billions of dollars.
An Investment Opportunity in Grains? Soybeans May Be Poised To Lead The Way - Blog
8/11/2020
A greater number of investors are uncovering opportunities in commodity markets and turning to Teucrium funds for their agriculture exposure. In fact, investor demand for our Soybean Fund (SOYB) has increased shares outstanding by 150% year to date. Based on conversations with investors and our observation of the markets, we believe there is both a macro and a micro investment case that can be made for grains, soybeans in particular.
Balancing Risk While Reaching for Yield - Blog
7/24/2020
Yield starved investors are increasingly stretching for mere basis points, and investors looking for additional yield will likely need to take on more portfolio risk. In times like these a proper understanding of portfolio diversification is essential.
The Chinese Are Buying US Corn - And a Lot Of It - Blog
Fewer Corn Acres Planted, Futures Prices Advance - Blog
6/30/2020
The USDA released estimates for corn planted acres at 92 million well below the average analyst guest of 95.1 million acres according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The revision suggests that US farmers will harvest some 500 million bushels less than previously estimated.
Prospective Acreage and Grain Stocks Summary
China Still Buying US Soybeans Despite Reports of Official Request to Stop - Blog
6/5/2020
Chinese firms continued buying US soybeans despite reports that governement officials equested they stop. Will the buying continue?
Record Corn Demand Despite Pandemic - Blog
5/21/2020
The USDA is estimating record corn demand and production for the 2020/2021 crop year. The same cannot be said for the global oil demand which is expected to decline.
China Buys Soy Amid Tensions - Blog
5/15/2020
Tensions are escalating between the US and China as the toll of the COVID-19 weighs heavier every day. Even so the Chinese appear to be attempting to live up to their Phase 1 trade agreement promises as they continue to purchase US Soybeans. "China will still implement the trade deal and chances are high that China will speed up purchases." This according to an official of COFCO, China's largest agri-product company. Notably, China has purchased both old crop (soybeans harvested in the fall of 2019) and new crop (soybeans which are only being planted now for harvest in fall 2020). The USDA is projecting exports of 1,675 million bushels of old crop soybeans. Dan Cekander of DC Analysis points out that "China will need to be significant buyer of old crop US soybeans for USDA's export projection to be realized." Old crop soybeans that are not purchased by September 1st 2020 will be carried over to the 2020-2021 balance sheet as "beginning stocks." The USDA is currently estimating that number to be 580 million bushels. Additionally, the USDA expects American Farmers to produce another 4.125 billion (with a b) bushels this year. While that is a big number, keep in mind that demand is expected to outpace production for the 2020-2021 crop year. In fact, the USDA only expects an excess of 405 million bushels of soybeans at the end of the 2020-2021 crop year. This represents a 175 million bushel reduction year over year (580 million bushels – 405 million bushels). A reduction in inventories and increasing demand is working to tighten the soybean balance sheet which is likely to be supportive for prices. Farmers and market participants will keep an eye on US-China relations for any indication of trouble. For the mean time however, the Chinese continue to buy.
U.S. - China Trade War - Newsletter
1/8/2020
Here at Teucrium, we believe the trade deal is good for both the United States and China, indeed, the entire globe will likely benefit from the world’s two largest economies increasing their ties.